Mets pitching collapse Senga injury playoffs
On June 12, 2025, the New York Mets held the best record in Major League Baseball at 45-24 and led the NL East by 5 1/2 games over the Philadelphia Phillies. This promising position, however, rapidly deteriorated following a critical injury to ace Kodai Senga that day.
Senga’s Grade 1 right hamstring strain marked the beginning of a steep downturn for the Mets’ pitching staff and, by extension, the team’s prospects. Despite efforts to patch the rotation through rookies and bullpen reinforcements, the Mets slid into an eight-game losing streak and now face the very real threat of missing the playoffs altogether (Source: Fangraphs — “Amid the Collapse of Their Pitching, the Mets Are Barely Hanging On”, Unknown, Published: 2025-09-04; Accessed: 2025-09-10; URL: https://www.fangraphs.com). The stark contrast in performance before and after June 12 is striking.
Prior to Senga’s injury, the Mets were on pace for a 106-win season. Since then, their record has plummeted to a 98-loss pace.
The team’s playoff odds declined from an impressive 96 (Mets pitching collapse) (Kodai Senga injury) (MLB playoff odds).2% to 80.6%, with their division lead evaporating and their magic number for the Phillies to clinch the NL East standing at just one with 12 games remaining (Source: Fangraphs — “Amid the Collapse of Their Pitching, the Mets Are Barely Hanging On”, Unknown, Published: 2025-09-04; Accessed: 2025-09-10; URL: https://www.fangraphs.com). This collapse centers unequivocally on pitching, as shown in key metrics. Before June 12, the Mets starters boasted a 2.79 ERA and a 68 ERA-—best in the majors—while the bullpen’s 2.89 ERA was second only to the Giants.
Offensively, the team remained robust, with runs scored slightly increasing from 4.62 to 4.75 runs per game and wRC+ (weighted runs created plus) holding above 110. The pitching, however, faltered dramatically: starters’ ERA ballooned to 5.17 with an ERA-of 123, and the bullpen’s ERA doubled to 5.04 (Source: Fangraphs — “Amid the Collapse of Their Pitching, the Mets Are Barely Hanging On”, Unknown, Published: 2025-09-04; Accessed: 2025-09-10; URL: https://www.fangraphs.com).
Kodai Senga injury Mets pitching collapse ERA
The injury to Kodai Senga was the fulcrum of the Mets’ unraveling. At the time of his hamstring strain, Senga had posted a sterling 1.47 ERA and 3.25 FIP over 73.2 innings, with six quality starts in 13 outings.
His injury forced him out for a month, and he has since struggled mightily, compiling a 5.90 ERA and 5.77 FIP in 39.2 innings without a single quality start. Mets officials have attributed his decline to compensatory mechanical changes caused by the hamstring injury, which disrupted his kinetic chain and pitching delivery (Source: MLB (Mets pitching collapse) (Kodai Senga injury) (MLB playoff odds).com — “Kodai Senga optioned to Triple-A by Mets”, Anthony DiComo, Published: 2025-09-07; Accessed: 2025-09-10; URL: https://www.mlb.com). Senga’s injury was quickly followed by other significant losses.
Tylor Megill exited a start with an elbow sprain shortly after Senga’s injury and has since failed to return to form, missing the rest of the season after multiple rehab setbacks and second opinions on his damaged ligament. Griffin Canning’s promising start was ended abruptly by a ruptured Achilles tendon in late June.
Frankie Montas, who returned mid-June from injury, was subsequently diagnosed with a torn ulnar collateral ligament requiring Tommy John surgery. Sean Manaea, sidelined earlier with a loose body in his elbow, returned but struggled to a 5.76 ERA and has not provided stability (Source: ESPN — “Mets place Frankie Montas on IL, recall Huascar Brazoban”, Unknown, Published: 2025-08-25; Accessed: 2025-09-10; URL: https://www.espn.com). The cumulative effect of these injuries and performance collapses meant the Mets were effectively down five of their top seven expected innings producers, forcing a patchwork rotation that leaned heavily on inexperienced arms.
This contributed to a severe drop in innings pitched per start, averaging just 4.71 innings, which ranks near the bottom of the league and places extreme strain on the bullpen (Source: Fangraphs — “Amid the Collapse of Their Pitching, the Mets Are Barely Hanging On”, Unknown, Published: 2025-09-04; Accessed: 2025-09-10; URL: https://www.fangraphs.com).
Mets rookie pitching ERA
The Mets’ late-season call-ups have offered rare hope amidst the pitching woes. Nolan McLean and Brandon Sproat stand out with ERAs of 1.19 and 2.25 respectively since June 13, delivering four and two quality starts in limited innings.
McLean’s strikeout rate (27.7%) and walk rate (8.4%) demonstrate promising control and dominance (Mets pitching collapse) (Kodai Senga injury) (MLB playoff odds). Meanwhile, other rookies like Jonah Tong and Griffin Canning struggled or were sidelined by injury, underlining the thin margin for error in this patchwork rotation (Source: Fangraphs — “Amid the Collapse of Their Pitching, the Mets Are Barely Hanging On”, Unknown, Published: 2025-09-04; Accessed: 2025-09-10; URL: https://www.fangraphs.com). These rookies’ performances highlight the Mets’ overreliance on inexperienced arms in a critical phase of the season.
While McLean’s 1.19 ERA and 2.48 FIP underscore his potential to stabilize starts, the small sample size and the pressure of a playoff race remain significant hurdles. The challenge for the Mets now lies in integrating these young starters effectively while managing the workload of the bullpen and veteran pitchers returning from injury (Source: Fangraphs — “Amid the Collapse of Their Pitching, the Mets Are Barely Hanging On”, Unknown, Published: 2025-09-04; Accessed: 2025-09-10; URL: https://www.fangraphs.com).
Mets offense pitching collapse analysis
The Mets’ offense has been a relative strength even as the pitching faltered. Runs scored per game marginally increased from 4.62 before June 12 to 4.75 after, and the team maintained a strong wRC+ above league average.
Juan Soto’s MVP-caliber performance and Pete Alonso’s clutch hitting were essential in prolonging the Mets’ playoff hopes. Alonso’s walk-off three-run homer against the Rangers snapped the team’s eight-game losing streak, showing the offense can still deliver in high-pressure moments (Source: MLB (Mets pitching collapse) (Kodai Senga injury) (MLB playoff odds).com — “Pete Alonso’s walk-off homer snaps losing streak”, Unknown, Published: 2025-09-08; Accessed: 2025-09-10; URL: https://www.mlb.com). However, offensive heroics can only do so much without reliable pitching support.
The team’s inability to limit runs allowed (which surged from 3.25 to 5.4 per game) eroded the margin for error. The offense’s steady output mitigated the decline but was insufficient to carry the Mets deep into the postseason under current conditions (Source: Fangraphs — “Amid the Collapse of Their Pitching, the Mets Are Barely Hanging On”, Unknown, Published: 2025-09-04; Accessed: 2025-09-10; URL: https://www.fangraphs.com).
Mets pitching performance playoff collapse
The data below encapsulates the Mets’ trajectory over the season, highlighting the transformation in their fortunes: Team Performance Comparison Table ① Through June 12-Record: 45-24 – Winning Percentage: .652-Runs Scored (RS): 4.62-Runs Allowed (RA): 3.25-Starting Pitchers ERA: 2.79-Bullpen ERA: 2.89-Playoff Odds: 96.2% ② Since June 13-Record: 32-49 – Winning Percentage: .513-Runs Scored (RS): 4 (Mets pitching collapse) (Kodai Senga injury) (MLB playoff odds).75-Runs Allowed (RA): 5.4-Starting Pitchers ERA: 5.17-Bullpen ERA: 5.04-Playoff Odds: 80.6% ③ Change-Winning Percentage: -0.139-Runs Allowed: +2.15-Starting ERA: +2.38-Bullpen ERA: +2.15-Playoff Odds: -15.6% This table starkly demonstrates the collapse in pitching effectiveness juxtaposed with stable offensive output. The runs allowed per game surged by more than two runs, a critical factor undermining the Mets’ ability to sustain wins despite their offense (Source: Fangraphs — “Amid the Collapse of Their Pitching, the Mets Are Barely Hanging On”, Unknown, Published: 2025-09-04; Accessed: 2025-09-10; URL: https://www.fangraphs.com).
Mets pitching injuries playoff impact
The Mets’ future hinges on the recovery and reintegration of injured pitchers, along with the continued development of their rookies. Kodai Senga’s recent Triple-A outings, where he struck out eight in six innings allowing just one run, provide cautious optimism for his return later this month.
The timing of his comeback could be crucial in shoring up the rotation as the postseason approaches. Meanwhile, the status of Tylor Megill remains uncertain, with multiple MRI evaluations indicating a potentially season-ending injury (Source: MLB.com — “Kodai Senga optioned to Triple-A by Mets”, Anthony DiComo, Published: 2025-09-07; Accessed: 2025-09-10; URL: https://www.mlb (Mets pitching collapse) (Kodai Senga injury) (MLB playoff odds).com). The bullpen’s heavy workload, forced by starters averaging fewer than five innings, raises concerns about fatigue and effectiveness in high-employ games.
The Mets’ front office faces tough decisions on managing innings and possibly acquiring additional pitching help before the trade deadline. Their ability to stabilize the pitching staff will determine whether they can transform a season of missed opportunities into a successful playoff push or face an early offseason (Source: Fangraphs — “Amid the Collapse of Their Pitching, the Mets Are Barely Hanging On”, Unknown, Published: 2025-09-04; Accessed: 2025-09-10; URL: https://www.fangraphs.com).
In sum, the Mets’ dramatic fall from division leaders to scrambling for a Wild Card spot is a cautionary tale of how injuries and pitching depth can unravel even the most promising campaigns. Their offense remains capable, but without a reliable rotation, the postseason may slip beyond reach.
